1 Down Year 🔻 3 Up Years 🚀: Part I
Crypto Market Cycles - Wallet/Portfolio Review (Week 15/52) - Happy New Year! 🎆
📟 Disclaimer
I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say in this substack is financial advice.
This is all educational content you can use as a starting off point for your own research initiatives. I’m just another random individual who started a substack ‘cause I think I have something to share with you all’. 🤷
That said, if you’d like to know a bit about me and are wondering why you should listen to me, read this intro post I wrote 🙌
👛 Wallet Review
This wallet review is a recurring post. The aim is to post an official update every Monday and see how far I can grow this little stash by week 52.
As of January 2nd, 12:00 UTC this tiny stash of mine sits at a modest value of $747USD, dubbed week 14 closing balance & week 15 opening balance.
Week Zero(0) Opening Balance Was: $450
To keep this review short, interesting, and not redundant, I won't be going over all my investments in depth. I'll only cover ones that I have allocated more than $50 to.
I suggest you read up on previous week's posts and make assessments on how this "experiment" is progressing.
🧐 My Macro Thesis Going into 2023!
Cryptocurrency market cycles refer to the pattern of rising and falling prices that cryptocurrencies tend to follow over time.
As you can see above a pattern starts to emerge, albeit, only fit to three datapoints.
Having said that, it allows us to formulate that we tend to spend Two (1.5) years in Accumulation, One (1) Year in Price Discovery, which is followed by One+ (1.5+) year distribution phase. here’s the same image with drawings for illustration purposes.
In My Experience;
Green is a phase of price discovery, red is a phase of price correction, and yellow is a phase of accumulation.
Most people tend to enter the market during the green phase (FOMO Phase), leave during the red phase (also known as the capitulation phase), or hold onto their investments during the yellow phase (Hero’s journey type of S#!t).
In the hopes of reaping rewards during the next green phase.
However, our goal is to beat this benchmark by entering the market during the late red to early yellow phase, accumulating and growing our investments throughout the yellow phase, and gradually selling over time during the green phase.
When the next red phase is confirmed (A rough estimate given similar calculations will be presented in next week’s review), we will either exit the market completely or, if possible, take a short position and bet against the market.
Keep in mind, however, that this is easier said than done.
It is common for cryptocurrencies to experience periods of strong growth, followed by a corrective decline, and then potentially another period of growth.
These market cycles can be influenced by a variety of factors, including changes in investor sentiment, regulatory developments, and technological advancements.
In the past, the cryptocurrency market has gone through several cycles of growth and decline.
For example, in 2013 and 2014, the market saw a significant bull run, with many cryptocurrencies experiencing strong price appreciation over a relatively short period of time.
This was followed by a bear market in 2014 and 2015, during which the prices of many cryptocurrencies declined significantly.
In 2017, the market saw another bull run, followed by a bear market in 2018. In general, it is difficult to predict exactly when market cycles will occur or how long they will last, as they can be influenced by a variety of complex and dynamic factors.
It is important for investors to be aware of market cycles and to approach cryptocurrency investments with caution, as the market can be volatile and prices can fluctuate significantly over short periods of time.
It is always a good idea to diversify your investments, do your own research, and be aware of the risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies.
Let’s Dive into the Wallet Review!
As you can see from the above screenshot, I haven't made any transactions since December 14, 2022. Therefore, there is nothing new to report this week.
It's good practice to step away from your portfolio and not let it consume you completely. As I've mentioned in previous reviews, sometimes the best thing to do is just sit on your hands and do nothing.
However, I thought it would be useful to do a quick recap/baseline of all my active strategies going into 2023:
⏸️ Idle Assets in My Wallet
These are assets that I am simply holding in my wallet and not actively trading. The combined value of these idle assets is $172 (Mostly ETH).
Note: All dollar value figures are calculated at the time of writing this review. To check the most up-to-date value, feel free to checkout my wallet on Debank.com
🧮 Polynomial.fi Automated Strategy Vaults
I use these values to gain exposure to ETH Call/Put options on a regular basis. Polynomial is simple to use and takes-away the Day-to-Day Management hassle.
🏦 Synthetix Staking & Loans
Synthetix is truly one of the more interesting and unique options available. This is mainly due to the fact that it is a distributed asset insurance protocol on the blockchain.
SNX enables the creation of on-chain synthetic assets (known as "Synths") that track the value of assets in the real world.
Projects like Kwenta (Decentralized Perpetual trading), Lyra (Decentralized Options Trading) & Thales (Decentralized Options marekets, Range Markets & Exotic Marekts), have all become well-respected projects that are leveraging the Synthetix stack to build amazing use cases that solve real problems.
🔏Brahma Vaults : Automated Strategy.
As illustrated above, the strategy runs these steps week after week and maintains the delta. If you don’t know what a Delta neutral portfolio strategy is, read up about it here.
It’s more or less Quant speak, If you don’t know what Quantitative Trading means; Quantitative trading essentially just consists of trading strategies based on quantitative analysis, which rely on mathematical computations and number crunching to identify trading opportunities. read up more about Quant trading here.
🔗GMX
Holding and staking GMX, the platform's native token, is a great way to earn a consistent and substantial income from the platform's trading activity.
By staking GMX, you are able to receive a daily yield of 30% of the platform's trading rewards. This is a valuable and lucrative opportunity that can help to diversify your portfolio and increase your overall returns.
📣 Weekly Highlights/Drama:
🤯 SBF might plea “NOT-Guilty!” (WTF).
Sam Bankman Fried, was released on a $250 million bail bond and is expected to plead not guilty to the charges in court on January 3.
Over these last few weeks, many Alameda wallets have become active and have shown unusual activity.
This activity is not that of a liquidator consolidating assets to repay debtors/customers their funds. Instead, it is similar to that of an individual on the run, mixing and hiding their funds!
Of-course SBF is denying any wrongdoing, and is deeply “Sorry”. Here’s actually a video from south park illustrating what has transpired since the FTX debacle.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has charged Bankman Fried with violating anti-fraud provisions under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Let’s see what comes of it, I’ll report on the outcome in next week’s review.
👬🏽 Winklevii Vs Digital Currency Group.
Cameron Winklevoss has written an open letter to Barry Silbert and Digital Currency Group (DCG) about the Genesis liquidity crunch, which some believe could be the next domino to fall in light of the recent controversy surrounding FTX.
If you are interested in staying up to date on the FTX saga, it might be worth reading the letter.
In summary, there is currently a lot of infighting in the cryptocurrency world, with people pointing fingers and trying to find someone to blame for the current problems. This is often seen during the "depression phase" of market cycles, when people tend to become negative and blame others for their problems.
As I start this new year, my feelings are reflected by the wise words of @greg16676935420
🪤 Outro
Of course, it goes without saying but bears repeating that nothing I say or share here is financial advice. I’m just another random individual starting a substack ‘cause I think I have something to share with you all’. 🤷
Also, like many individuals who are doing this for a living I also am a humble penniless fool. So, if you are a kind, bountiful, and gifted individual who has benefited from this S#!t Postery and wish to buy this S#!t Poster of yours a coffee, Some drip money would definitely be appreciated and will help to keep my fingers going on this mechanical keyboard of mine.